Growth Model - Project Details / Task List
Tag: growth-model
Total Hours: 35h
Structure: Single Milestone (<=50h)
Milestone: Growth Model
Description: A financial modeling project that integrates top-down ARR targets with bottom-up GTM efficiency metrics (the Power 10) to create achievable quarterly revenue goals.
Task List: (Growth Model) 1. Discovery & Model Build
Contains: Parts 1-2
| Task | Est | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Conduct Kickoff and Align on Targets | 1.5h | Meet with executive sponsor (CRO/VP Sales) to validate top-down ARR targets and understand board-level expectations. End state: Documented quarterly ARR targets with segment breakdown and strategic context. • Schedule 60-minute kickoff with CRO/VP Sales and RevOps lead • Validate annual and quarterly ARR targets from board deck or exec planning docs • Clarify how revenue is segmented (Enterprise, Mid-Market, SMB) and definitions for each • Understand any planned pricing changes, product launches, or market expansions • Document strategic priorities (e.g., "focus on enterprise" vs "scale SMB") • Confirm project timeline and key milestones |
| 2. Extract Historical CRM Data | 2h | Pull 12-18 months of closed-won deal data and calculate historical conversion rates by segment and source. End state: Clean dataset of historical performance with conversion metrics ready for analysis. • Request CRM admin access or coordinate data export with RevOps • Pull closed-won deals for last 12-18 months with stage history, close dates, and ACV • Segment deals by customer type (Enterprise, Mid-Market, SMB) • Calculate historical conversion rates: MQL-to-SQL, SQL-to-Opp, Opp-to-CW by segment • Extract average sales cycle length by segment • Note data quality issues and gaps for discussion with stakeholder |
| 3. Gather NRR and Benchmark Data | 2.5h | Collect retention metrics and industry benchmarks to establish current state vs target state. End state: Comparison table showing current metrics against relevant industry benchmarks. • Calculate current NRR components: gross retention, expansion rate, contraction rate, churn rate • Break out retention metrics by customer cohort if available • Pull relevant industry benchmarks from KeyBanc, OpenView, or Bessemer for client's stage and ACV • Identify which Power 10 metrics are most relevant for this client • Create current vs benchmark comparison table • Flag the 2-3 metrics with largest gap to benchmark |
| 4. Document Current State Baseline | 2h | Synthesize discovery findings into a structured baseline document for model building. End state: Discovery summary deliverable ready for stakeholder review. • Build current state metrics table with segment breakdown • Create NRR waterfall showing expansion, contraction, and churn contributions • Document data sources and any caveats on data quality • Summarize key findings and preliminary gap observations • Review baseline with stakeholder before moving to model build |
| 5. Structure the Power 10 Metrics Framework | 3h | Build the core spreadsheet structure with current, target, and benchmark columns organized by the Power 10 metrics. End state: Model shell ready for bottoms-up calculations. • Create spreadsheet with tabs for: Inputs, Model, Scenarios, Dashboard • Set up Power 10 metrics framework with current values from discovery • Add benchmark column with industry targets for each metric • Configure segment breakdown (Enterprise, Mid-Market, SMB) in model structure • Build input cells for assumptions that can be easily updated monthly • Document each input source and assumption rationale in notes column |
| 6. Calculate Bottoms-Up Revenue Targets | 3h | Model the required conversion rates, pipeline coverage, and lead volumes to hit quarterly ARR targets. End state: Bottoms-up forecast showing what needs to be true to hit each quarter's target. • Work backward from quarterly ARR targets to required closed-won deals by segment • Calculate pipeline coverage needed (typically 3-4x for predictable forecasting) • Determine required opportunity volume based on historical win rates • Model lead volume requirements based on MQL-to-Opp conversion rates • Factor in average sales cycle length for timing of pipeline generation • Reconcile bottoms-up requirements against current capacity |
| 7. Model Capacity Requirements | 2.5h | Determine rep count, ramp assumptions, and resource needs by quarter to support revenue targets. End state: Capacity plan showing hiring needs and productivity assumptions. • Calculate quota capacity based on current fully-ramped rep count • Model new hire requirements based on target attainment assumptions • Factor in ramp time (typically 3-6 months to full productivity) • Calculate implied rep productivity and compare to benchmarks • Identify capacity gaps by quarter • Document hiring timeline implications |
| 8. Build ARR Momentum Table | 3h | Create monthly ARR tracking table that breaks out New, Expansion, Contraction, and Churned ARR. End state: ARR waterfall showing path from current to target ARR. • Set up monthly columns for trailing 12 months plus forecast period • Break out ARR components: Starting ARR, New ARR, Expansion, Contraction, Churn, Ending ARR • Apply NRR assumptions to existing customer base • Model expansion revenue based on historical upsell rates • Calculate net new ARR required each month • Validate ending ARR matches quarterly targets |
| 9. Build Scenario Models | 3.5h | Create base, upside, and conservative scenarios with sensitivity analysis on key drivers. End state: Three scenario views showing range of outcomes based on different assumptions. • Duplicate base model for upside and conservative scenarios • Identify 3-4 key driver variables for sensitivity (win rate, cycle length, churn, ACV) • Model upside case with optimistic but achievable assumptions • Model conservative case with current-state assumptions plus headwinds • Create sensitivity table showing ARR impact of +/- 10% on each key driver • Build scenario comparison summary for leadership presentation |
Task List: (Growth Model) 2. Validation & Handoff
Contains: Parts 3-4
| Task | Est | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 10. Cross-Reference Against Current Pipeline | 2h | Validate model feasibility by comparing bottoms-up requirements against actual weighted pipeline. End state: Feasibility assessment confirming targets are achievable or identifying gaps. • Pull current pipeline with stage, probability, and expected close date • Calculate weighted pipeline value by quarter • Compare weighted pipeline to model's required pipeline coverage • Identify gap between current pipeline and model requirements • Flag quarters where pipeline coverage is below 3x target • Document pipeline health assessment for stakeholder discussion |
| 11. Validate Assumptions with Stakeholders | 1.5h | Review model assumptions with sales and RevOps leaders to ensure they reflect operational reality. End state: Stakeholder-validated assumptions with documented rationale. • Schedule assumption review session with VP Sales and RevOps • Walk through conversion rate assumptions and get sign-off • Validate hiring plan is realistic given recruiting capacity • Confirm NRR assumptions align with CS team's view • Adjust model based on stakeholder feedback • Document final assumptions and who validated each |
| 12. Quantify Gap Analysis | 2.5h | Identify the 2-3 metrics most out of line with benchmarks and translate gaps into dollar impact. End state: Prioritized list of improvement areas with quantified ARR impact. • Calculate dollar impact of each metric gap (e.g., "improving win rate by 5% = $X ARR") • Rank gaps by ease of improvement vs ARR impact • Identify which gaps are addressable in current planning period • Map gaps to potential LeanScale projects or initiatives • Create gap analysis summary for executive presentation |
| 13. Present Findings to Leadership | 1.5h | Deliver executive presentation with prioritized recommendations and model walkthrough. End state: Leadership aligned on model outputs, key gaps, and recommended actions. • Build presentation deck with: executive summary, methodology, key findings, gap analysis, recommendations • Lead with the 2-3 metrics most out of line and what to do about them • Present scenario comparison showing range of outcomes • Include Rule of 40 and Magic Number context for board-readiness • Facilitate discussion on resource allocation and prioritization • Capture decisions and action items from meeting |
| 14. Train Internal Team on Model Maintenance | 2h | Enable RevOps or Finance to update the model monthly without external support. End state: Client team confident in model mechanics and update process. • Schedule 60-minute training session with model owner (RevOps or Finance) • Walk through model structure, input cells, and formulas • Demonstrate monthly update process step-by-step • Create quick-reference guide for common update tasks • Practice one update cycle together • Confirm client can execute update in 2 hours or less |
| 15. Deliver Documentation Package | 1.5h | Provide complete documentation covering model inputs, assumptions, and update cadence. End state: Self-sufficient client with all materials needed for ongoing model use. • Create model documentation covering: input sources, key formulas, assumptions log • Build executive summary view formatted for board reporting • Document update SOP with monthly cadence and data sources • Include troubleshooting guide for common issues • Package all materials in shared folder with clear naming • Confirm client has access to all documentation |
| 16. Schedule Refinement Check-In | 0.5h | Set up 30-day follow-up to validate actuals vs model and refine assumptions. End state: Check-in scheduled with clear agenda for model refinement. • Schedule 30-day check-in meeting before project close • Define success criteria for check-in (actuals vs forecast comparison) • Set expectation that model may need assumption tuning after first month • Provide contact information for questions before check-in • Document handoff completion and project close |
Summary
- Total Task Lists: 2 (consolidated from 4 Parts)
- Total Tasks: 16 (one per Step)
- Total Hours: 35h
- Generated from: playbook_growth-model.md
- Generated on: 2025-12-31